State of the Real Estate Market: October 2021

Nationally, home sales in the Canadian real estate market rose by 9% month over month.1 2 October did not eclipse the 2020 record for sales but was still the second-highest month recorded by a sizeable margin. As demand heats up, inventory continues to shrink, meaning seller’s markets continue to be prevalent in Ontario, Alberta, and Manitoba. 
 
For the third month in a row, the only two regions in the report to post year-over-year increases in sales and new listings were Calgary and Edmonton. Alberta was ripe with oversupply before the pandemic hit. Now high levels of demand are eating into that overstocked inventory level, and this is a big reason why these regions continue to perform contrastively to the rest of the country. Calgary notably posted a 24% increase in sales compared to October 2020. Every region featured in this report is in a seller’s market, with most sales-to-new-listings (STNL) ratios tightening up several percentage points month over month.  
 
“After a summer where it looked like housing markets might be calming down a bit, October’s numbers suggest we might be moving back towards what we saw this spring, with regards to current market demand and supply conditions. That said, one month of data is not a trend, so we’ll be watching how the balance of this memorable year plays out closely,” said Cliff Stevenson, Chair of Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).  

Moving on to average selling price, most regions featured in this report saw modest month-over-month increases or stayed at par with the previous month. Peel was the only region that saw prices fall 2% month over month. Year over year, every region but Calgary and Edmonton saw substantial price gains. Niagara and Hamilton real estate prices skyrocketed 34% and 27% respectively, with all regions increasing by an average of 21%.  
 
As previously noted, every region in the report is still in a seller’s market, as STNL ratios tightened across the country. For example, Hamilton’s STNL ratio increased to 100% in October from 84% in September. Ontario regions featured in this report saw new listings decrease by an average of 16% in October compared to the same time last year.  

Supply will be the operative word used in many real estate conversations over the coming months, as it’s clear it will be the one catalyst that can loosen tight conditions. It’s important to note that nationally, the number of newly listed properties did climb 3% month over month. But that is not enough to offset buyer demand.  A few consistent months of increased listings could help curb upward price trajectory and provide more balanced conditions.  

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If you’re looking to make a purchase or planning to sell, the professional guidance and insights of an experienced REALTOR® can’t be overestimated. Speak to a local FairSquare Group Realty agent to learn about the latest trends in your area and discover how we can help you reach your real estate goals. 

Jump to Region

Ontario
Toronto
Peel
Ottawa
Hamilton
Niagara

Alberta
Calgary
Edmonton

Manitoba
Winnipeg

Ontario

Ontario is still experiencing a substantial decline in sales activity compared to last year, as sales fell 13% year over year. Despite this, October still saw the second-best results for this month on record. Seller’s markets dominate most regions across the province, as record-low inventory numbers continue. 

The Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) reports 21,674 residential transactions, coming in 8% above the five-year average. 3 Compared to October 2020, sales were down 13%, but did increase 4% from September 2021. There is still strong buyer demand that is forcing downward pressure on supply, creating tight conditions across the province.  

New residential listings totalled 24,720 across the province in October. New listings dropped 27% year over year and fell 13% month over month. Buyer demand remains incredibly high, and those looking to sell their home who could add more inventory to the market are likely looking to buy another home as well. As a result, the record-low inventory may discourage some sellers from putting their home on the market if they do not have another one lined up.  

Active listings experienced similar double-digit declines year over year, falling 44%. Supply also continued to fall month over month, decreasing by 16%. The shortage in supply kept the market in the hands of the sellers. This drove the sales-to-new-listings ratio up 15% from last month. Ontario was closer to balanced conditions at the end of the summer, but it has returned to tighter more seller-favoured conditions.  
 
Compared to September, the reduced year-over-year supply affected the months of inventory which measures how long it would take to sell all inventory at the current rate of sales. The months of inventory decreased 20% month over month, coming in at 0.8 for October 2021 compared to September’s one month of inventory. 
 
Overall, the average price increased by 23% year over year and 3% month over month. With the average price of a home now sitting at $912,763. It is likely we will continue to see price increases or hold steady until supply and inventory becomes more balanced.    

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In a seller’s market like Ontario’s, the guidance of experienced REALTORS® is an invaluable asset for both buyers and sellers. Speak to a local FairSquare Group Realty agent to learn about the latest trends in your region and discover how we can help you reach your real estate goal

Toronto 

Toronto returned to a seller’s market in October, with the sales-to-new-listings (STNL) ratio tightening to 74%. This represents a 17% increase from last month. Active and new listings are still down substantially, but home sales were up 8% year over year and 14% month over month. This indicates there is still pent-up buyer demand contributing to the re-tightening of conditions.  

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reports4 5 6: 

  • Market: Seller's Market 
  • Sales: 3,794 (up 8% year over year and up 12% month over month)
  • New listings: 5,140 (down 34% year over year and down 14% month over month)
  • Active listings: 4,247 (down 51% year over year and down 12% month over month)
  • Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 74% (previous month was 57%)
  • Average days on market: 16 (down 6% year over year and at par month over month)
  • Average detached selling price: $1,784,979 (up 21% year over year and at par month over month)
  • Average semi-detached selling price: $1,322,229 (up 15% year over year and up 1% month over month)
  • Average townhouse selling price: $1,343,920 (up 26% year over year and up 17% month over month)
  • Average condo selling price: $739,647 (up 11% year over year and down 1% month over month)
  • All residential average selling price: $1,122,463 (up 9% year over year and up 3% month over month) 

Comments from TRREB President Kevin Crigger: “The only sustainable way to address housing affordability in the GTA is to deal with the persistent mismatch between demand and supply. Demand isn’t going away. And that’s why all three levels of government need to focus on supply.” 

Peel  

Sellers tightened their grip on Peel, as the sales-to-new-listings (STNL) ratio increased to 92% from 80% last month. A shortage of supply continues to hamper the region, as new and active listings are down 38% and 64%, respectively, year over year. While the residential average selling price for all home types increased 20% year over year, it did fall 2% compared to last month signalling some levelling off in price growth. 

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reports7 8 9: 

  • Market: Seller's Market 
  • Sales: 1,920 (down 13% year over year and up 5% month over month)
  • New listings: 2,090 (down 38% year over year and down 9% month over month)
  • Active listings: 970 (down 64% year over year and down 22% month over month)
  • Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 92% (previous month was 80%)
  • Average days on market: 11 (down 27% year over year and down 8% month over month)
  • Average detached selling price: $1,433,956 (up 28% year over year and down 2% month over month)
  • Average semi-detached selling price: $1,020,941 (up 27% year over year and up 4% month over month)
  • Average townhouse selling price: $947,287 (up 30% year over year and up 3% month over month)
  • Average condo selling price: $591,159 (up 13% year over year and down 2% month over month)
  • All residential average selling price: $1,065,595 (up 19% year over year and down 2% month over month) 

Comments from TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer: "The tight market conditions across all market segments and areas of the GTA is testament to the broadening scope of economic recovery in the region and household confidence that this recovery will continue. A key part of future economic development in the GTA will be the ability to provide adequate ownership and rental housing supply so that people can continue to move to the region to live, work and spend money in the local economy.” 

Ottawa   

Ottawa had an active real estate market in October. Sales are up 4% month over month and down 21% year over year. However, the year-over-year downturn occurred only because there was a sales frenzy in fall 2020 due to the pent-up demand from the delayed spring market. The demand for housing remains incredibly high which is shown by the sales-to-new-listings (STNL) ratio increasing a substantial 21% month over month, now sitting at 86%, planting Ottawa firmly in a seller’s market.  

The Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reports10: 

  • Market: Seller's Market 
  • Sales: 1,677 (down 21% year over year and up 4%% month over month) 
  • New listings: 1,960 (down 33% year over year and down 13% month over month) 
  • Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 86% (previous month was 71%) 
  • Number of condominium-class properties sold: 414 (down 14% year over year and up 14% month over month) 
  • Number of residential-class properties sold: 1,263 (down 24% year over year and up 2% month over month)
  • Average condo selling price: $404,760 (up 10% year over year and down 5% month over month)
  • Average residential selling price: $716,378 (up 19% year over year and up 2% month over month) 

Comments from OREB President Debra Wright: “October’s resale market was active, busy, and stable – and followed the typical (pre-pandemic) ebb and flow that we commonly see as we enter the fall season. The only reason we see a year-over-year decrease in comparison to last October is because 2020’s sales peak had shifted from the spring months to September/October due to the initial Covid-19 lockdown.” 
 

Hamilton-Burlington 

The Hamilton-Burlington region posted a new average sale price record for the month of October with the average residential selling price skyrocketing to $922,297 from $881,656 the previous month. Sales are down 18% year over year and up 8% month over month; this is due to the lack of inventory in the market. The shortage in active listings contributed to the sales-to-new-listings (STNL) ratio jumping to 100%, meaning the same number of homes that came onto the market in October was matched by the number of homes that sold. In other words, supply is incredibly low and buyer demand is high. 
 
The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reports11 : 

  • Market: Seller's Market 
  • Sales: 1,329 (down 18% year over year and up 8% month over month)
  • New listings: 1,330 (down 23% year over year and down 9% month over month)
  • Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 100% (previous month was 84%)
  • Average selling price in Hamilton: $864,474 (up 30% year over year and up 9% month over month)
  • Average selling price in Burlington: $1,148,587 (up 28% year over year and up 8% month over month)
  • Average selling price in Niagara North: $941,251 (up 37% year over year and up 12% month over month)
  • Average selling price in Haldimand County: $772,656 (up 32% year over year and down 7% month over month)
  • All residential average selling price: $922,297 (up 27% year over year and up 5% month over month) 

Comments from RAHB President Donna Bacher: “Following September’s momentum, October posted a new average sale price record for residential properties...The number of sales are down significantly from last October’s highs and up slightly from the typical activity we usually experience in October. The level of active listings and months of inventory available remains concerning as demand continues to drive the market. We do not anticipate this to change as 2021 comes to a close.” 

Niagara   

Despite October sales in the Niagara region being down 14% year over year, sales climbed 10% month over month as new listings fell 13%. The increase in sales with the decrease of new listings resulted in the market tightening further and continuing to favour sellers. As a result, the overall benchmark price for a home is still rising in the region, climbing 34% year over year and 2% month over month. Buyer demand is still high and pent-up, with a shortage of supply the constant catalyst. 
 
The Niagara Association of REALTORS® (NAR)12 :

  • Market: Seller's Market 
  • Sales: 774 (down 14% year over year and up 10% month over month) 
  • New listings: 865 (down 19% year over year and down 13% month over month)
  • Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 89% (previous month was 71%)
  • Average days on market: 28 (up 47% year over year and up 27% month over month)
  • Benchmark price for a home in St. Catharines: $634,000 (up 37% year over year and up 3% month over month)
  • Benchmark price for a home in Niagara Falls: $626,700 (up 34% year over year and up 2% month over month)
  • Benchmark price for a home in Welland: $546,400 (up 31% year over year and at par month over month)
  • Benchmark price for a home in Fort Erie: $564,100 (up 31% year over year and up 1% month over month)
  • Overall benchmark price for a home in the Niagara region: $679,400 (up 34% year over year and up 2% month over month)

Comments from NAR President Doug Rempel: “Buyer demand is still high and with so few homes available, sellers who list their homes this fall will likely have a tremendous advantage also known as leverage. Buyers want to buy before prices go even higher, they want to buy before interest rates rise, and in the likely event of having to compete with other offers, they want their offer accepted. These three buyer needs give homeowners a leg up when selling their house. Sellers might already realize this leverage enables them to sell at a good price, but it also means they can negotiate the best terms to suit your needs."

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If you need to sell or buy a home, a local FairSquare Group Realty agent can help you navigate the market safely and with professional insight. FairSquare Group Realty supports Canadians by providing full-service real estate experiences with incredible rewards: sellers save thousands in commission and buyers receive $2,000 cash back* when they purchase a home with one of our REALTORS®. Call 1-855-999-9740 to learn more. 

Alberta

Sales were driven to record highs in October across Alberta. There were many consumers in the market looking for detached properties, and high demand continues to be driven by low lending rates. The sales-to-new-listings (STNL) ratio increased by 10%, now sitting at 80%, placing market conditions firmly in the hands of the sellers.  

Like September 2021,13 new listings stayed consistent year-over-year but did experience a 13% decline from last month. Looking at sales activity, home sales across the province increased 15% year over year and dropped 1% month over month. Despite downward pressure on inventory and rising prices, October’s total of 6,494 homes sold is still a record for Alberta. 

With inventories decreasing and record sales numbers, the months of supply remained just over three months. Again, this is an unusual level for this time of year. It’s becoming even more evident that the number of new listings has not been at the level needed to impact supply. 

Average selling prices did not spike or drop considerable amounts in October. Across the province, the average selling price for all home types grew 4% year over year and increased by 3% month over month, now sitting at $426,926. 

Calgary 

Calgary’s 2,186 sales in October set a record high for the month and is 35% above long-term averages. The sales-to-new-listings (STNL) ratio increased dramatically by 13 percentage points, driving the market further into the hands of the sellers. Tighter market conditions pushed the average selling price up by 2% both month over month and year over year. Notably, the average condo apartment price increased a substantial 19% compared to October 2020, showing increased desire in this product type.  
 
The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) reports14 15 :

  • Market:Seller's Market 
  • Sales:2,186 (up 24% year over year and up 1% month over month)
  • New listings:2,500 (up 2% year over year and down 14% month over month)
  • Active listings: 4,870 (down 16% year over year and down 13% month over month)
  • Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 87% (previous month was 74%)
  • Average price for a detached home:$571,258 (up 3% year over year and down 2% month over month)
  • Average price for a semi-detached home: $484,213 (up 5% year over year and up 4% month over month)
  • Average price for a townhouse:$326,783 (up 3% year over year and up 3% month over month)
  • Average price for a condo: $288,118 (up 19% year over year and up 12% month over month)
  • Overall average price for a home: $485,482 (up 2% year over year and up 2% month over month) 

 
Comments from CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie: "Moving into the fourth quarter, the pace of housing demand continues to exceed expectations in the city. Much of the persistent strength is likely related to improving confidence in future economic prospects, as well as a sense of urgency among consumers to take advantage of the low-lending-rate environment.” 

Edmonton   

Normalization is the key word when it comes to the Edmonton real estate market, as the market is trending towards more balanced conditions heading into the winter months. Nevertheless, the market did tighten due to sales outpacing new listings month over month. This is demonstrated by the sales-to-new-listings (STNL) ratio which increased by nine percentage points into the hands of the sellers, now sitting at 70%.

The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton (RAE) reports16 : 

  • Market:Seller's Market
  • Sales:1,866 (up 12% year over year and down 1% month over month) 
  • New listings:2,676 (at par year over year and down 6% month over month)
  • Active listings:6,821 (down 6% year over year and down 4% month over month)
  • Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 70% (previous month was 61%)
  • Average days on market: 47 (down 6% year over year and up 7% month over month)
  • Average detached selling price: $450,306 (up 2% year over year and down 1% month over month)
  • Average duplex selling price: $361,827 (up 8% year over year and up 7% month over month)
  • Average condo selling price: $225,449 (down 3% year over year and up 1% month over month)
  • Average residential selling price: $377,848 (down 1% year over year and at par month over month) 

Comments from RAE Chair Tom Shearer: "The Edmonton market in October saw only a nominal increase in new residential listings as compared to October 2020. The year-over-year residential unit sales in the GEA were higher than October of last year, while we have continued to see small decreases in the month-to-month activity. The market continues to see a normalization as we head into the winter months.” 

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If you need to sell or buy a home, a local FairSquare Group Realty agent can help you navigate the market safely and with professional insight. FairsSquare Group Realty supports Canadians by providing exceptional real estate experiences with incredible rewards: sellers save thousands in commission and buyers receive $2,000 cash back* when they purchase a home with one of our REALTORS®. Call 1-877-888-3131to learn more. 

 

Manitoba

It was a record-setting month in Winnipeg for year-to-date sales. The number of year-to-date home sales at the end of October surpassed all of 2020’s total sales with two months left to spare in the year. This is a testament to how hot the Winnipeg market has been, and it doesn’t appear to be slowing down as supply continues to tighten.   

New listings were at par year over year and down 7% month over month. In contrast, active listings were down significantly, 27% year over year and 8% month over month. The tightening of supply drove the sales-to-new-listings (STNL) ratio up to 85% from 78% the previous month. Still locked in a seller’s market, Winnipeg sellers continue to enjoy elevated average selling prices.  
 
Prices for detached homes, townhouses, and condos all increased single-digit percentage points year over year. Month over month, condos saw a 10% price gain, detached properties increased by 5%, and townhome prices stayed at par with last month. The largest percentage of transactions took place in the $500K-$750K range, with the $300-$350K range a close second.  

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In a seller’s market like Winnipeg’s, the guidance of experienced REALTORS® is an invaluable asset for both buyers and sellers. Speak to a local FairSquare Group Realty agent to learn about the latest trends in your region and discover how we can help you reach your real estate goals.  

Winnipeg 

The Winnipeg Regional Real Estate Board (WRREB)  reports17 18 : 

  • Market:Seller's Market   
  • Sales:1,508 (down 5% year over year and up 1% month over month)
  • New listings: 1,779 (at par over year and down 7% month over month)
  • Active listings: 2,603 (down 27% year over year and down 8% month over month)
  • Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 85% (previous month was 78%)
  • Average detached selling price: $381,920 (up 9% year over year and up 5% month over month)
  • Average townhouse selling price: $312,441 (up 8% year over year and at par month over month)
  • Average condo selling price:$254,875 (up 2% year over year and up 10% month over month) 

Comments from WRREB President Kourosh Doustshenas: “October’s strength in listing and sales activity demonstrates success is not seasonally-based. The fourth quarter numbers are indicative of a year where consistency of purpose to buy property has not let up for most MLS® properties. 

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Need to sell or buy a home? FairSquare Group Realty can help.  

We’re the real estate brokerage that offers a smart, modern choice for Canadians. With thousands in commission savings for sellers, $2,000 cash back* for buyers, and experienced professional support every step of the way, it’s the new way home. Yours. Call 1-855-999-9740 to learn more. 

†The Canadian Real Estate Association calculates benchmark prices using the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), which uses data from a region to define a “typical” home. Benchmark prices can reflect the changes to a region’s property value far more accurately than average or median prices. *Statistics presented herein are rounded to the nearest whole number for readability. Exact statistics can be found using the references provided.

On December 1, 2021, Purplebricks rebranded to FairSquare Group Realty. Blog articles published before this date were created under the Purplebricks brand but remain the property of FairSquare Group Realty.

In January 2019, ComFree Commonsense Network Brokerage rebranded to Purplebricks.