State of the Real Estate Market: November 2019
Curious to know how the real estate market is doing in Ontario, Manitoba, and Alberta? We thought so.
Our monthly update will help you better understand the current state of the market so you can make informed decisions with your real estate purchases.
The Toronto Real Estate Board reports1 the GTA experiencing strong sales growth with a 14.2% increase compared to November 2018. This echoes the sales growth from last month at 14%, showing consistency in the market conditions. Supply continues to be an issue in the GTA with new listings down 17.9% and active listing down 27.2% year-over-year. Jason Mercer, TREB's Chief Market Analyst, commented, "Strong population growth in the GTA coupled with declining negotiated mortgage rates resulted in sales accounting for a greater share of listings in November and throughout the second half of 2019. Increased competition between buyers has resulted in an acceleration in price growth. Expect the rate of price growth to increase further if we see no relief on the listings supply front.” This continuing climb of sales growth is reflective of November having a 6.8% year-over-year increase, breaking last month’s highest annual rate of growth by 1%. The average selling price for a home in Toronto is $843,637, a year-over-year increase of 7.1%.
The Ottawa real estate market2 saw moderate sales in November with a 10.9% increase compared to November 2018. Condominium sales in the $225,000-$349,999 price range continue to be the most prevalent in Ottawa, with over 57% of all units sold falling into this class. OREB President Dwight Delahunt commented, “Even with the typical winter slowdown, Ottawa’s home resale market still experienced a relatively brisk pace in November. Our inventory is not having a chance to build as it is being absorbed as quickly as it comes on the market. That’s why there are so many sales every month even though the supply stock is low.” The average selling price for a condominium-class property is $313,734 and the average selling price for a residential-class property is $501,201, a year-over-year increase of 9.8% and 16.9% respectively.
In the Hamilton-Burlington region3, sales numbers are down compared to the previous month’s spike, but are still 5.5% higher than November 2018. RAHB President Bob Van de Vrande reports, “This decrease in listings and a higher ratio of solds to listings indicate that the market is currently an opportune time for sellers to consider listing.” The RAHB market saw an increase in sales for detached single-family properties and townhomes with inflation-level year-over-year price increases of 2.7% and 2.9% respectively. Condominium sales saw a decrease in the number of sales by 9.3% but a substantial year-over-year average price increase of 23.2%. The average selling price for a home in Hamilton-Burlington region is $591,334, a year-over-year increase of 5.6%.
Homes sales slowed down in the Kitchener-Waterloo region4 with a sizeable decrease of 12.4% compared to November 2018. Despite slower sales, the year-over-year average sales price increased by a substantial 18.7%. KWAR President Colleen Koehler comments, “People moving to this area from other places is continuing to be a significant factor for our market. These buyers are selling wherever they are coming from and buying here, removing homes from the inventory but not putting anything in. This has pushed up prices by decreasing inventory while demand persists.” The demand for housing is reflective of the low number of days on market at 27 days. With the increase of job availability and businesses continuing to invest in KW, housing shortage will likely continue to be an issue in this growing region. The average selling price for a home in Kitchener-Waterloo is $566,866, a year-over-year increase of 18.7%.
The London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® reported5 another record-breaking month for the number of home sales since November 1978, with a sales growth of 3.2% compared to November 2018. A sales-to-new listings ratio over 60% is considered by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) to favour sellers; the London region’s overall sales-to-new listings ratio was 90.7% this past month. “Several regions saw sales-to-new listings ratios above 100%... We're still experiencing low inventory levels, which also continues to impact the average home sales price in all regions," said Earl Taylor, 2019 LSTAR President. The average selling price for a home in the London region is $416,116, a year-over-year increase of 10.6%.
Windsor-Essex County experienced a decrease in market activity of 2.4% compared to November 20186. Looking at year-to-date sales, the largest price range where homes were sold was in the $300,000-$359,999 range, accounting for 17.2% of all residential units sold in 2019. November home sales mimic the year-to-date figures with 17.9% of sales having occurred in that price range. Average sales price was the highest of 2019. The average selling price for a home in the Windsor region is $335,898, a year-over-year increase of 12.1%.
The Manitoba real estate market7 saw a 4% year-over-year increase for number of home sales and nearly a 10% increase in dollar volume. This indicates that price increases are outpacing the number of homes available. “Manitobans are actively engaged in our real estate market this year given the extent of MLS® listing and sales activity we are experiencing. The recovery we predicted in 2019 over 2018 has come to fruition,” commented Kenneth Clark, president of WinnipegREALTORS®. If December sees a healthy pace of home sales, it is expected 2019 will be a record-breaking year for Canada’s fifth-most populous province. The most active price ranges for November was $250,000 to $299,999 for 24% of detached residential sales and $150,000 to $199,999 for 26% of condominium sales. The average selling price for a single-family home is $327,485 and the average for condominiums is $249,681, a year-over-year increase of 5.7% and decrease of 6.7% respectively.
Alberta continues to see low housing market activity with sales down 3% compared to November 2018 with sales 11% below long-term averages8. Ann-Marie Lurie, AREA Chief Economist comments, “Uncertainty combined with job losses is weighing on the market. This is impacting resale demand, with sales activity settling into lower levels since 2014. While supply adjustments continue, the province-wide conditions continue to favour the buyer, weighing on prices.” There was an improvement in the sales-to-new-listing ratio but considering there are eight months worth of inventory to get through, it remains a buyer’s market with prices remaining low. The Calgary and Edmonton markets are improving slowly with more balanced market conditions for supply and demand, though oversupply continues to be an issue that will take time to improve.
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